It's been recognized for some time now that reliable, authoritative data on the number of US HDTV households is elusive. Up to now, the most often-quoted data has come from the Consumer Electronics Association, and that trade group's most recent estimate puts US household penetration at 32% (36 million homes), with that share predicted to increase to 36% by the end of this year.

Now, Nielsen comes along and releases a new survey that pegs current HDTV penetration rate at less than half the CEA figures.

From Broadcasting and Cable:

Nielsen found that only 13.7% of TV households in the United States -- or roughly 15.5 million out of 112.8 million total U.S. TV households -- are equipped with HD televisions and HD tuners capable of receiving HDTV signals, a status Nielsen described as "HD Capable."

What the latest Nielsen data really means is anyone's guess, but it's certainly great fodder for a discussion over a few beers.

If you think about it, it's not all that surprising that the Consumer Electronics Association numbers might tend toward the optimistic. After all, whether they intend it or not, consumer electronics manufacturers, distributors and dealers benefit from positive HDTV publicity, as it helps move more shoppers onto the HDTV bandwagon.

But the sheer size of the gap between the CEA and Nielsen's numbers is startling.

If I had to say whose data comes closer to the true picture, I'd have to come down on the side of the CEA. But then, I can't really come up with any great rationale for why Nielsen might have the sort of bias that would result in them unintentionally low-balling the results.

Very puzzling.

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Comments (2)

One Theory, Who buys data from Nielsen? Broadcasters. Wh October 30, 2007     

Who buys data from Nielsen? Broadcasters.
Why would Broadcasters want HD penetration to be low? Many Broadcasters are basing their decision to delay upgrading local news to HD on minimal viewership in HD. It costs a lot of money upgrading infrastructure to produce local HD so they save money in the short term by reporting low HD viewership.

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Interesting Theory, That's a very good theory, and gener October 31, 2007     

That's a very good theory, and generally squares with my view that the average local broadcaster has been something less than proactive when it comes to HDTV promotion, never mind programming. I wouldn't be surprised if the Nielsen numbers is making a number of local broadcasters feel all warm and fuzzy this morning.

On the other hand, I assume that Nielsen is now going to begin routinely collecting and selling data on HDTV viewership. It would seem that numbers that indicate that HD penetration is further along than what Nielsen is reporting would have the effect of creating more broadcaster demand for that data.

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